Domestic Primary Aluminum Billet Production in September Continues to Hit New Highs This Year [SMM Analysis]

SMM, October 22: Domestic primary aluminum billet production in September continues to hit new highs both for the year and historically. Entering the traditional "September peak season," demand and operating performance for primary aluminum billets remained stable and strong. The daily average output of domestic primary aluminum billets in September increased by 2,000 mt MoM to around 51,000 mt/day. Notably, despite fewer operating days in September compared to August, the simultaneous resumption and new production in Xinjiang contributed to an overall increase in domestic primary aluminum billet supply.

According to the latest monthly survey data from SMM, the number of sample enterprises in the SMM primary aluminum billet monthly survey currently totals 169, with a total capacity of 31.205 million mt, unchanged from the previous month. In September 2024 (30 days), the total production of primary aluminum billets nationwide was 1.528 million mt, up 15,000 mt MoM from August 2024 (31 days), an increase of 0.98%; YoY, it increased by 197,000 mt, an increase of 14.8%. The domestic operating rate of primary aluminum billets in September was 58.8%, up 0.6% MoM. The increase in domestic primary aluminum billet supply in September was mainly contributed by the Xinjiang region, with an increase of 28,000 mt MoM, an increase of over 15%. Except for Xinjiang, Shanxi, and Chongqing, where production changes exceeded 10% MoM, the production changes in other provinces were less than 5% MoM, showing a stable to strong trend in aluminum billet supply overall.

Overall, as October enters the end of the peak season, the environmental protection policy in north China affects local enterprise production, coupled with aluminum prices fluctuating at highs, some end-use sectors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, which may negatively impact aluminum billet operations and demand. Despite more operating days in October compared to September, SMM still expects a slight drop back in domestic primary aluminum billet production in October.